The Iran–Israel–U.S. war is in its second week. Analysts had warned all along that a war against Tehran would be a high-risk venture. The present regime has been in place for nearly 50 years. It also has a well-trained and loyal military. Its proxy network may have weakened, but it is still spread throughout the region, and Iran possesses a huge stockpile of ballistic missiles and rockets.

The change of regime that the U.S. imagined by eliminating Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei triggered national cohesion in Iran and international cohesion between Shias and Sunnis across the globe. Iran has now appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, consolidating power around the Revolutionary Guard and further reinforcing a hard-line posture toward the West. Analysts warn that this leadership transition has hardened Iran’s resolve rather than weakening the regime, as many in Washington had hoped.

As per Al Jazeera and satellite images published by Reuters, following the 12-day war with Israel in June 2025, Iran began working on what it called the “new normal” of direct conflict with Israel and the United States. This included strengthening air defenses, repairing damaged infrastructure, and fortifying nuclear facilities. The strategy focused on a rapid, multifaceted military buildup aimed at restoring deterrence.

Iran aimed to maintain its missile and drone capabilities as its primary retaliatory tool. The same is evident in the retaliation crafted by Iran in the 2026 Ramadan war. Iran also worked on updating its military command structure and attempted to thwart Israeli intelligence infiltration. Iran expelled around 1.5 million Afghans, alleging some were spies for Israel. There has also been a move toward a more decentralized and flexible command structure.

On the other hand, many believe the United States, in particular, has plunged into this war without due diligence. The narrative-hopping by the U.S. is unbelievable, from “regime change” to “concerns about Iran’s nuclear program” to “Balkanization of Iran.” The U.S. also lost all moral high ground by abandoning diplomacy twice.

Both in 2025 and now in 2026, Iran was attacked in the midst of negotiations. Iran’s nuclear program and other issues, understood to include Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and its network of regional armed groups, were under discussion. There are also constitutional questions. President Trump never sought congressional approval for the war. Leaks from the Pentagon suggest that if strikes on Iran continue for more than ten days, U.S. stocks of certain critical missiles could start running low.

The Iranian war strategy initially focused on quick retaliation and the expansion of the conflict to the Gulf states—Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq—targeting American assets. However, the strategy now is targeted hits on Tel Aviv and relying increasingly on drones rather than missiles. This has created a sense of awe about Iran’s capabilities of sustaining attacks and hitting back for ten consecutive days. The damage on the Iranian side is also colossal in terms of casualties and infrastructure. However, Iranian resolve and resilience remain intact.

Is the United States in a fix? Absolutely yes. Some analysts call it the “escalation trap” or the “smart bomb trap.” The rapidly escalating direct military confrontation with Iran has left the world gasping, waiting with bated breath for the unexpected. Some have even predicted a possible nuclear dimension to the conflict. Israel violated international humanitarian law by using white phosphorous during attacks on Lebanon, as confirmed by Human Rights Watch (HRW).

The U.S. Central Command has reported a rise in casualties among its service members, eight so far. President Trump joined the families of seven slain U.S. service members at Dover Air Force Base. The United States historically has a very low appetite for prolonged wars involving body bags. More importantly, nobody in the U.S. truly owns this war. It is seen by many as Israel’s war, fought by a besieged president of the United States.

Thousands of U.S. citizens are also stranded across the Middle East due to airspace closures and targeted attacks. American asset vulnerabilities in the region have increased tremendously.

Ten days into the war, Americaand indeed the worldappears trapped in what some call the “whiplash era” of Donald Trump’s tear-it-down politics. The intra-party divisions among Republicans could not have emerged at a worse time. The midterm elections are approaching. Dissent over the war and unconditional support for Israel may cost Republicans in November.

Influential right-wing journalist Tucker Carlson, a leading critic of Israel’s influence over U.S. policy, has argued to millions of social media followers that Israel is pushing the United States into conflict with Iran in order to secure absolute hegemony in the Middle East. Even Fox News has begun discussing the issue.

Several Gulf leaders have made it clear that their territories should not be used as launchpads for attacks on Iran, even as Iranian retaliatory strikes hit energy facilities and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf. President Trump appears to be losing ground in the United States, Europe, and the Middle East by default. Key Gulf allies of the U.S., like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are reviewing financial agreements with Washington. Russia and China are gaining space diplomatically and strategically. It is not difficult to see where this war could lead.

The cost will not be borne by Trump or America alone. The world will pay the price for the destruction that has already been triggered, whether through disruptions to global energy supplies or widespread airspace closures. The near closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, marking the most severe global energy crisis since the 1970s.

This may only be the beginning of the story. It could escalate toward something far more catastrophic. Until then, the downward slide will be painful, and the world appears dangerously unprepared.

U.S. President Donald Trump is on record saying that the war on Iran will be over “very soon,” after dubbing the past ten days of war a “short-term excursion” and declaring near victory.

President Trump’s expectation of a quick surrender by Iran has turned into the U.S. and Israel facing a multi-front, high-tech, strategized retaliation from Iran, now openly backed by Russia. Rapid conclusion of the conflict is fast becoming an Israeli–U.S. desire, not Iran’s compulsion. Global and regional geopolitics has changed forever.

© Pakistan Observer