PAKISTAN has spent decades discussing economic growth without addressing the structural weaknesses that repeatedly pull the economy back into crisis. Whenever growth begins to accelerate, imports rise, the current account deteriorates, foreign exchange reserves come under pressure and the country eventually returns to the IMF. Pakistan now needs to break this cycle. But the uncomfortable truth is that raising GDP substantially will require decisions that are politically difficult, socially sensitive and strongly opposed by powerful vested interests.

The Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26 provisionally estimates real GDP growth at 3.7%, compared with 3.18% in FY2025, while the IMF projects growth of about 3.6% for FY2026. Three to four per cent growth is simply inadequate for a country with a rapidly growing population, widespread poverty, unemployment and enormous development requirements. The question, therefore, is not whether Pakistan needs higher growth.

The political cost of reform: Almost every meaningful economic reform carries a political cost. Taxing agricultural income creates resistance. Reforming energy prices creates public anger. Closing loss-making enterprises creates opposition. Privatizing inefficient institutions generates controversy. Reducing subsidies invites protests. Documentation threatens the informal economy, while stronger accountability threatens vested interests.

This is precisely why Pakistan has repeatedly postponed structural reform. The problem is therefore not merely economic incompetence. It is the inability or unwillingness of political leadership to confront organized vested interests. Business mafias, powerful land interests, smuggling networks, politically connected enterprises and protected economic groups cannot be allowed to dictate national economic policy. Confronting them requires political........

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