Opinion | India And The New Economics of Uncertainty

Updated: Sep 08, 2026 15:33 pm IST Published On Sep 08, 2026 15:33 pm IST Last Updated On Sep 08, 2026 15:33 pm IST

Published On Sep 08, 2026 15:33 pm IST

Last Updated On Sep 08, 2026 15:33 pm IST

For much of the past three decades, the global economy operated on a relatively simple premise: greater economic integration would create greater prosperity. Supply chains stretched across borders, capital moved in search of efficiency, trade expanded and geopolitical differences were often managed in the interest of economic interdependence. Efficiency, scale and openness were the dominant principles shaping economic decisions, while the risks created by excessive concentration or strategic dependence were often treated as secondary considerations.

That premise is no longer secure. The world is being reshaped by geopolitical conflict, geo-economic rivalry, trade disruptions, technological change and the reorganisation of global supply chains. The uncertainty created by these developments is no longer an occasional interruption to the global economy; uncertainty itself is becoming a defining feature of the new economic order. For India, therefore, the challenge is not simply to navigate the next crisis, but to rethink how economic resilience, competitiveness and national security need to work together.

When Uncertainty Becomes the New NormalThe recent performance of the Indian economy offers grounds for confidence. Despite wars, disruptions to energy markets, uncertainty around global trade and considerable volatility in the external environment, domestic demand has remained resilient. Growth has remained strong, public investment has continued to expand and India's services exports have demonstrated considerable durability. These are important strengths, but they should not lead to complacency.

Resilience should not be confused with preparedness. The more important question is not whether India can withstand the next external shock, but whether it can prepare itself for an economic environment in which shocks become more frequent, more interconnected and harder to predict. The distinction is crucial because the nature of risk itself is changing. A conflict in one part of the world can quickly become an energy crisis somewhere else; a trade restriction can disrupt production thousands of miles away; and a technological breakthrough can alter the competitiveness of an entire industry almost overnight.

Consider energy. India imports more than 85% of its oil consumption, making it inherently exposed to disruptions in global energy markets and maritime routes. A prolonged disruption in a strategically important shipping corridor can therefore affect far more than the price of fuel. It can feed into inflation, the current account, the fiscal position and ultimately economic growth. The........

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