Kalshi Offers $1 Billion for a Perfect March Madness Bracket—Just as Warren Buffett Did 12 Years Ago

No one won back in 2014—and the odds are still just as slim today.

BY ANNABEL BURBA, EDITORIAL ASSISTANT @ANNIEBURBA

Illustration: Inc; Photo: Getty Images

Kalshi is taking cues from the Oracle of Omaha this March Madness season. Yesterday, the prediction market platform announced that it’s recreating a contest Warren Buffett famously backed in 2014 by offering to give $1 billion to anyone who creates a perfect bracket for the 2026 NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

The odds of someone actually achieving this feat are extremely slim. It’s about a 1 in 9.2 quintillion chance—a fact Buffett and Kalshi are both well aware of. 

To sweeten the deal, the 2014 contest, which Quicken Loans created and the billionaire investor backed, offered to give $100,000 to the top 20 best-performing brackets. This year, Kalshi is also guaranteeing $2 million in total prizes, though it’s splitting it up by giving $1 million to its top bracket and $1 million to charity.

Buffett and Quicken Loans didn’t end up having to cough up $1 billion 12 years ago. After just four days and 25 games of March Madness, zero perfect brackets remained.

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It’s possible that things could be different in the age of AI—but you shouldn’t bet on it. While Buffett has offered $1 billion in prize money to the public only once, he has held an annual March Madness contest for Berkshire Hathaway employees every year since. The incentive was slightly different, yet still shocking: $1 million per year for life for a perfect bracket or $100,000 for the closest try.

For years, no one claimed that prize, so Buffett continually relaxed the rules. In 2025, he offered $1 million to anyone who correctly picked the right winner for 30 of the first 32 games. “I’m getting older,” he told The Wall Street Journal. “I want to give away a million dollars to somebody while I’m still around as chairman.”

It worked: last March, one lucky employee guessed 31 games correctly and finally claimed the $1 million.

Kalshi’s competition seems to be the buzziest 2026 March Madness marketing campaign so far—likely because of the billion-dollar headline. Many other brands have centered their efforts around partnerships with rising basketball stars. Streaming platform Sling TV is teaming up with the Washington Wizards’ Trae Young, State Farm with Duke’s Cameron and Cayden Booze, and Planet Fitness with University of Connecticut’s Azzi Fudd and Michigan’s Elliot Cadeau.

The preferred-rate deadline to apply for the 2026 Inc. 5000 is Friday, March 20, at 11:59 p.m. PT. Apply here.

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