There is a warning for all trusted systems in India in Indigo’s recent operational meltdown. Imagine a similar disruption in India’s digital payments backbone — the Unified Payments Interface (UPI). If Indigo’s cancelled flights caused inconvenience, a payments-system breakdown could bring everyday life to a stop: We pay for groceries, transport, utilities, school fees, tolls, even temple donations through a tap. Yet this marvel of digital inclusion sits on an uncomfortable foundation: More than 80% of UPI transactions today are routed through just two third-party apps.

This isn’t just dominance, it is systemic dependency. And dependency at this scale comes with serious risks. The National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) anticipated this fragility as early as 2020, proposing a 30% cap on market share for individual UPI apps. The idea was not punitive, but preventive: Diversify traffic, deepen competition, and reduce single-point vulnerability. However, after multiple extensions, implementation has been deferred to December 2026. The delay can cause concentration to solidify and switching costs to rise, while weakening alternatives.

UPI empowered small merchants, reduced cash handling, and showcased India as a global leader in........

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