The latest Holyrood poll shows a win for the SNP, but what is Scotland's message really, asks Mark Smith

Well, here we are folks, less than four months to go until the Scottish elections and things appear to be on the move, with the latest opinion poll showing some apparently significant shifts in how we’re thinking and how we might vote. But do hang on in there because Scotland’s message to politicians has always run deeper than one opinion poll and for the SNP in particular, the message is tricky at best.

So what’s the latest poll saying exactly? It’s from Norstat and it puts the SNP on 35% for the constituency vote and 29% for the regional. Labour are on second with 19% and 17% respectively, with Reform third at 17 and 16. Support for the other main parties is as follows: Tories 11 and 12, Lib Dems nine for both, and the Greens trailing in last place with seven for the constituencies and 11 for list. If it pans out that way in May, the SNP would get 59 seats, one down from their current position. I’m trying to think of a word for it. Stasis?

The really interesting thing about the poll however, as always, is how things could be shifting and on the face of it, Reform is out to lose the most. Nine consecutive polls have shown Nigel Farage’s party on the rise in Scotland, but this latest one has shown a drop: not massive but a drop nonetheless of three points on the constituencies compared to four months ago and two on the regional. Everyone suspected it was coming and that Reform might have a ceiling, we just didn’t know quite how high or low the ceiling was.

Whatever they say in public, the higher-ups in Reform will be concerned by these latest figures; they’ll also be worried by the........

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