In the wake of the SNP’s annus horribilis, from the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon and the bitterness of the ensuing leadership contest to the party’s hammering in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, SNP politicians know they are in a hole, but most of them believe they can climb out of it.

One might think that it is incumbent on them as politicians to project confidence that they can win the upcoming general election in Scotland. But there is genuine belief, too, that they can at least partly recover by the autumn.

That belief contradicts the dominant narrative of Labour’s resurgence and momentum and an expected wave of political change. But setting aside that narrative, if the SNP is to recover in 2024, what would that recovery look like?

While there has been a large swing from the SNP to Scottish Labour, the hole the SNP is in is not as deep as you might think. The swing from the SNP to Labour between the final five polls of 2022 and the final five of 2023 was 7.4 points, reducing their average poll lead from 15.2 points to 0.4 points.

Scotland’s electoral geography, particularly the concentration of Labour votes in the central belt and urban Scotland, combined with First Past the Post, would mean that an SNP lead of this size would still lead to Labour becoming Scotland’s largest party. But the swing back to the SNP needed for them to retain their position as Scotland’s largest party at Westminster (albeit still with heavy losses) would be just a single point.

To win a majority of seats in Scotland, they would need a swing back to them from........

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