Can Reform UK hold onto its high polling figures until the 2026 Scottish election? Ipsos Scotland managing director Emily Gray crunches the numbers

Next May’s devolved elections in Scotland and Wales, and local elections in England, will be a crucial electoral test for Reform UK. Much recent commentary focuses on whether Reform UK has a "ceiling" of support in Scotland. But a question that's received less attention is how successful the party is likely to be in holding onto the supporters it has recently attracted. When push comes to shove, will Scottish voters really cast their votes for Reform in such numbers next May?

Ipsos’ latest Scottish Political Monitor poll finds that Reform UK has been gaining yet more ground in Scotland. Although the SNP is still well out in front in Holyrood voting intentions, on 35% of the constituency vote, Reform UK is on 18% – a rise of four points since June. Meanwhile, Scottish Labour is languishing on 16%, down seven points since June. The SNP also looks likely at this stage to top the vote share on the regional list vote – 28% say they plan to vote SNP with their list vote.

However, Reform is polling close to Labour and the Scottish Greens – 17% of likely voters now say they would cast their list vote for Reform UK, compared with 18% for Scottish Labour and 17% for the Scottish Greens. If these vote shares were replicated at the ballot box next May, there could be as many as 17 Reform MSPs at Holyrood. The surge in Reform UK support over the past year in Scotland has come largely from disaffected Labour and Conservative voters. Alarmingly for Labour, just 38% of Scots who voted Labour at the 2024........

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