“Yes,” said Stephen Flynn, Scotland’s Economy Secretary, to the question of whether Scotland will be independent by 2034, asked by the BBC’s Martin Geissler during an Edinburgh Festival Fringe special edition of his Scotcast podcast.

For full disclosure, I know Mr Flynn, and I like him. I’m glad he’s in the Scottish Parliament, an institution which is desperate for MSPs who are simultaneously bright enough to understand the country’s problems and ambitious enough to want to fix them.

I also happen to agree with his thesis, or at least part of it. Scotland could be independent by 2034, and that propulsion to independence would likely be driven by a collapse in the stability that the British state has historically offered Scotland. Britain is in a low-wage, low-growth, low-work, high-welfare hole, made deeper by the rise of populism and the fracturing of two-party politics, and there is no sign of us coming out of it.

However, there is a piece of Mr Flynn’s jigsaw which did not form part of his answer to Mr Geissler: the performance of the Scottish Government. The Scottish electorate cannot be expected to run away from the rain at Westminster when there is no sunshine at Holyrood. Indeed, in many areas the rain is very clearly heavier up here.

GERS figures prove one thing - that Scotland needs full tax powers

C'mon, John - cut tax and let Scotland flourish - or will the SNP not let you?

'Nicola Sturgeon is wrong: Scotland’s public services are failing'

This SNP policy has been a disaster for Scotland - so why is Burnham considering it?

Enter the........

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