What bubble? JPMorgan says the $5.5 trillion AI capex explosion is profitable–for now

JPMorgan Global Research is doubling down on a central thesis for 2026: the surge in AI investment is not only durable, but increasingly profitable.

In its midyear outlook, the firm points to a broadening capital expenditure cycle anchoring growth expectations. At the center is the “AI upstream” buildout—data centers, chips, and supporting infrastructure—still heavily concentrated in the U.S., which commands about 85% of AI and machine learning venture capital. Spillover benefits are expected in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, given their roles in semiconductor supply chains.

JPMorgan now estimates total global AI-related capital expenditures will reach $5.5 trillion through 2030, up from $5.1 trillion. The increase reflects higher capacity expansion and a shift in financing. The bank raised its estimate for debt financing tied to the AI buildout to $4.1........

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