‘An unattractive deal with Iran is the best of limited bad options’ if the U.S. wants to get oil flowing again

Good morning. On Fortune’s radar today:

Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz—how bad can it be? We have answers.

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The irony of Iran’s plan for tolls on the Hormuz: They might be cheaper than you'd think 

If Iran got its way and imposed shipping tolls on the Strait of Hormuz at around 5% to 7% of each oil cargo, it might generate close to $20 billion a year for the regime in Tehran, Fortune’s Jordan Blum estimates. But such astronomical tolls won’t be accepted by the U.S. or Iran’s Gulf neighbors, geopolitical and energy analysts say.

That means the stalemate will drag on indefinitely or Iran will eventually accept a lesser, but still substantial, financial payout. Either way, the Middle East and, as a result, global energy markets are forever changed.

The ironic thing: If Iran sets a price too high, the Gulf countries will be forced to adjust and export their oil over land, thus rendering the Strait irrelevant. And the Iranians likely understand that they would have to keep the fees low enough to be economically viable.

“The strait is never going to go back to its pre-war status quo,” said Gregory Brew, senior analyst for Iran and energy with the Eurasia Group. “There’s going to be a permanently recognized Iranian role in managing the waterway.”

“An unattractive deal with Iran is the best of limited bad options,” he believes.

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Global stocks stage mini rally on buoyant AI earnings

U.S. tech stocks largely fell yesterday with the Nasdaq Composite losing 0.6%. But AI cloud provider CoreWeave published blockbuster Q2 results and markets in Asia and Europe woke up with a smile this morning.

S&P 500 futures were up 0.22% this morning. The index was down 0.32% yesterday. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was flat in early trading, as........

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