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Eight years ago, President Donald Trump took the United States out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known more commonly as the Iran nuclear deal. In the years since, half of Washington has continued to argue that the JCPOA was “the best possible deal,” with the other half maintaining that “there was a better deal.” It has been the background music to every twist and turn in U.S. Iran policy since 2018 but has come to the fore again since Trump launched Operation Epic Fury.

Supporters of the JCPOA have argued that if the United States had remained in the deal, the Iranian nuclear program would have been limited and under international inspection, making the current war and its attendant economic costs unnecessary and unjustified.

Eight years ago, President Donald Trump took the United States out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known more commonly as the Iran nuclear deal. In the years since, half of Washington has continued to argue that the JCPOA was “the best possible deal,” with the other half maintaining that “there was a better deal.” It has been the background music to every twist and turn in U.S. Iran policy since 2018 but has come to the fore again since Trump launched Operation Epic Fury.

Supporters of the JCPOA have argued that if the United States had remained in the deal, the Iranian nuclear program would have been limited and under international inspection, making the current war and its attendant economic costs unnecessary and unjustified.

It’s no surprise, given the partisan divide, that many people want to say, “We told you so!” But are they right? It is worth meditating on a world in which Trump had stayed in the JCPOA and asking whether it is better than the one in which we live. Understanding the counterfactual helps policymakers understand the prevailing assumptions of both sides in the JCPOA.

So, is the world in which the nuclear agreement remains in place, with about four years left until the restrictions on Iran’s nuclear work end, superior to the present reality? I’d say sort of, kind of, but not necessarily.

After reading the JCPOA twice, two things were clear to me: First, there is a reason why I withdrew from physics in high school. Second, the logic of the deal only really made sense in........

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