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Are we, at long last, seeing formerly friendly states begin to balance against a rogue America?

Such a shift would constitute a sea change in world affairs. If it does occur, it will be entirely due to the strategic myopia of the Trump administration and the predatory impulses of an increasingly erratic president.

Are we, at long last, seeing formerly friendly states begin to balance against a rogue America?

Such a shift would constitute a sea change in world affairs. If it does occur, it will be entirely due to the strategic myopia of the Trump administration and the predatory impulses of an increasingly erratic president.

For the past hundred years or so, America’s rise to global dominance was a partial exception to old-style balance-of-power theory, insofar as its preponderant position did not induce lots of other states to join forces to keep Washington in check. Although the United States did face a countervailing Soviet-led coalition during the Cold War, most of the world’s major or medium powers saw the United States as a valuable ally, even if they sometimes disagreed with particular U.S. policies. But as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told World Economic Forum attendees in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, that world is a thing of the past. Today, he said, “In a world of great-power rivalry, the countries in between have a choice: Compete with each other for favor, or combine to create a third path with impact.”

Forgive me for invoking some of my own work in what follows, but I’ve been thinking and writing about this topic—the origins of alliances and the reasons why states balance—since I wrote my doctoral dissertation (and first book) some 40-plus years ago. I argued that states form alliances primarily in response to threats, and not just power alone. Power is one element of threat, of course (i.e., other things being equal, strong states are a greater danger than weak states are), but geography and perceived intentions matter, too. States that are close by tend to be more worrisome than those that are far away, and states with........

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