Foreign & Public Diplomacy

Ongoing reports and analysis

According to an emerging conventional wisdom, the United States suffered a catastrophic loss in the war and memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran that were worse than Vietnam and comparable to the United Kingdom’s embarrassing defeat in the Suez Crisis in 1956.

This is erroneous hyperbole.

According to an emerging conventional wisdom, the United States suffered a catastrophic loss in the war and memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran that were worse than Vietnam and comparable to the United Kingdom’s embarrassing defeat in the Suez Crisis in 1956.

This is erroneous hyperbole.

To be sure, the United States did not register a knockout punch against the Islamic Republic, but to continue the boxing metaphor, it did win on points.

For several weeks, beginning on Feb. 28, the United States landed blow after heavy blow against its opponent. Operation Epic Fury achieved most of U.S. President Donald Trump’s stated goals by seriously degrading Iran’s nuclear program, conventional military, defense industrial base, and leadership.

For decades prior to the war, Iran posed one of the greatest threats to U.S. national security. Now, it is at its weakest point since the 1979 revolution. Its prewar leadership is gone. Its new leaders are hiding for their lives. Iran’s economy is in crisis, with hyperinflation, a predicted 6 percent decline in GDP, and, by Tehran’s own estimates, $270 billion in wartime damage. Its military is badly degraded and unable to inflict significant damage directly against U.S. forces. Finally, the Islamic Republic has lost legitimacy with its own people and alienated neighboring states across the region.

Trump also followed through on his promise to the Iranian people that “help is on the way.” In response to Tehran’s large-scale killing of its own people in December and January, the United States and Israel launched a massive bombing campaign that resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as much of the Iranian leadership who oversaw the massacre. Any future Iranian leader will need to think twice before choosing the same course of action—and potential fate.

The war did not result in regime change— at least not yet. But this was never a core and consistent objective of the U.S. strategy and never one that was fully in Washington’s control. The large-scale military campaign provided an opportunity, as Trump promised, for the........

© Foreign Policy