Japan’s decadelong strategy to insulate itself from Middle Eastern energy disruption has been proved right and rendered unworkable at the same time. For years, Tokyo built what was arguably the world’s most sophisticated liquefied natural gas (LNG) diversification strategy, designed specifically to reduce its exposure to Gulf volatility.

The Hormuz crisis has validated every one of those fears. It has also closed off most of the escape routes Japan spent years building. Tokyo is not facing empty pipelines today—but it is running out of strategic options, and the decisions made in the coming months will shape Japan’s energy posture for a generation.

Japan’s decadelong strategy to insulate itself from Middle Eastern energy disruption has been proved right and rendered unworkable at the same time. For years, Tokyo built what was arguably the world’s most sophisticated liquefied natural gas (LNG) diversification strategy, designed specifically to reduce its exposure to Gulf volatility.

The Hormuz crisis has validated every one of those fears. It has also closed off most of the escape routes Japan spent years building. Tokyo is not facing empty pipelines today—but it is running out of strategic options, and the decisions made in the coming months will shape Japan’s energy posture for a generation.

Japan is not currently running out of gas. There are no imminent blackouts scheduled for Tokyo or Osaka, and JERA’s CEO has acknowledged that only around 5 percent of JERA’s LNG shipments transit the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis is primarily one of price, not volume. But the strategic picture is more troubling than the physical one. Long-term contracts are being hit by force majeure. Spot prices are prohibitively expensive.

The underlying vulnerability is rooted in geography. Japan is an energy-poor island country with almost no domestic fossil fuel reserves, relying on the Middle East for roughly 95 percent of its oil—about 70 percent of which transits the Strait of Hormuz—and around 11 percent of its LNG. The scale of the current disruption tells the story: On March 3, Tokyo-area fiscal 2026 baseload futures jumped 34 percent in just two trading days, hitting an all-time high of 16.38 yen/kWh. When QatarEnergy declared force majeure shortly after, it confirmed that this was not a temporary spike but a structural break.

A cease-fire between the United States and Iran........

© Foreign Policy