When it comes to Iran, the Trump administration has a decidedly dismal record. It failed to wear down the Islamic Republic with months of intense bombings. It could not bend Iran’s will at the negotiating table. Yet despite seven months of setbacks, U.S. officials believe that they have turned the page. They have implemented fresh sanctions while maintaining the existing American blockade of the country’s southern coast, throttling its access to outside commerce. As a result, they have concluded that the Islamic Republic will soon either concede or be downed. “We are going to economically asphyxiate this regime,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared on September 1.

There is no doubt that Washington has dealt significant damage to Iran. But the Islamic Republic does not believe it is unraveling. In fact, Tehran thinks that it will defeat the United States—and it isn’t hard to see why. The Iranian government did not merely survive the U.S.-Israeli bombardment. It retaliated ferociously, damaging American military bases and obstructing the Strait of Hormuz. Its people are paying a hefty economic price thanks to damage caused by the war and Washington’s cutoffs, but much of the population has rallied around the flag and seems to accept that hardship is necessary if Iran is to defend itself. As a result, Tehran has been emboldened. Its officials may not see eye to eye on each tactic. But they share the same ambitions: evicting U.S. forces from the Persian Gulf, forcing Washington to remove all its sanctions, and getting the United States to accept that Iran is a great power.

This agenda might sound overly audacious, given that Iran has been materially weakened. But the Islamic Republic thinks its aims are within reach. It believes its military can drive U.S. troops from the Persian Gulf by continuing to strike American bases directly and by getting Arab countries to push the United States to leave. It thinks that by wreaking havoc on energy markets, it can force Washington to lift economic restrictions, as well. Tehran’s theory of victory, in other words, is that it can hold out and inflict enough pain that the United States will end its containment of Iran.

No one doubts that Iran has been battered by war. Months of American and Israeli bombs have damaged the country’s industries and infrastructure, spiking unemployment and pushing more Iranians into poverty. Washington’s sanctions and naval blockade have caused rampant inflation. And the American and Israeli militaries can count many tactical successes, including the assassination of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

But strategically, the conflict has been disastrous. U.S. officials believed that punishing aerial bombardments and sweeping efforts to degrade the Iranian economy would bring the Islamic Republic to its knees. They didn’t. Washington hoped that assassinating Khamenei would prompt a mass antigovernment uprising. That scheme also failed. Instead, Khamenei’s death brought out the Islamic Republic’s ardent supporters. They marched every night in the country’s main cities and were eventually joined by Iranians of other political hues, who rallied in support of their homeland. When the war started, Turkey planned to accommodate 70,000 Iranian refugees. But few people fled. In fact, as the war progressed, many Iranians living abroad returned home, including long-exiled cultural figures, journalists, and politicians, such as the singers Mohsen Namjoo and Bijan Mortazavi.

This surge in nationalism is not an endorsement of the Islamic Republic. Many Iranians remain deeply unhappy with the country’s leadership. But the anger at their government has been subsumed by their anger at Washington. Previously, most Iranians were skeptical of the........

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