Since the beginning of July, Russian drones and missiles have been terrorizing Kyiv with exceptional intensity. Air raid sirens blare day and night, warning residents of oncoming fire and sending people running underground. Many of the drones have been shot down, but not all, and the ballistic missiles have largely gotten through, destroying buildings and killing civilians; so far, roughly 100 have died. The bombardments have become so intense that, in recent weeks, Ukrainians have been posting a grim joke on Instagram and TikTok: “Thank God I live in Kyiv, so I do not have to plan for the future.”

Kyiv has now endured almost five years of war, so its residents are used to hardship. But this kind of pessimism is new. For the first half of 2026, observers were celebrating what looked like a turning point in the conflict. After a year of grinding Russian progress, Ukraine learned how to better conduct precise middle- and long-range strikes, allowing it to hit Russian targets far behind the frontlines. As a result, Moscow’s progress came to a halt. The country, which was already losing too many troops, began incurring casualties that seemed unsustainable. Many analysts began to speculate that the Kremlin might soon have no choice but to settle.

But Ukraine’s new capabilities could not deliver victory. And this summer, Russia sharply increased its use of ballistic missiles and deployed fast, long-range, jet-powered drones at newfound scale. It also widened its set of targets. Before, the Russian military concentrated almost all its firepower on cities and towns near the frontlines, particularly in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. But now it has started mass bombing cities in the interior—particularly Kyiv. It is even reaching places along Ukraine’s western border.

Together, these changes are indicative of Russia’s new theory of victory. Moscow no longer hopes to win by merely capturing cities, or even by degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Instead, it wants to disrupt Ukraine’s whole economy and break the population’s morale by terrorizing urban centers. It aims to make city life so intolerable that residents and businesses flee, and it wants to sever the logistical connections between metropolitan areas. Moscow calculates that this will make Ukrainians increasingly angry at their own government for failing to protect them, weakening the country’s long-admired cohesion and internal resolve.

There is no guarantee that this plan will succeed. Ukraine is large, decentralized, and considerably more capable and resilient than even many of its supporters think. But the country’s economy is in dire straits, and its government is facing budget shortfalls that it needs outside help to fill. Moscow is betting that such help won’t soon arrive. Instead, it thinks that the price Washington and Europe are willing to pay to support Kyiv is limited, whereas the price Russia is prepared to pay to conquer Ukraine is not. Russia’s principal target, then, is not Ukraine’s territory or infrastructure. It is the will of the Ukrainian people and of their partners.

HOLDING ON FOR DEAR LIFE

No one in Ukraine has ever been safe from the consequences of Russia’s invasion. People from every city and region have fought and died to protect their state. Stores everywhere suffer from shortages, and the economy has contracted. Still, the invasion has not affected the whole country equally. People living near the frontlines have faced constant bombardments and the imminent threat of occupation, whereas those in the rear can, at times, tune out the conflict.

That is changing now that Russia is targeting places far from the battlefield. In Kyiv, for example, residents used to face a few drone and missile barrages a week—disruptive, but not enough to stop city residents from going about their lives. Now Russia is continuously sending projectiles toward the capital, day and night. On August 27, Kyiv registered a record 13 air-raid alerts in a single day. On the night of September 8, a single alert stretched for ten hours, from 7:39 PM until 5:40 AM. Two weeks later, nothing had changed: Kyiv had 11 alerts on September 23 and a nine-hour alert the next morning. A month ago, those of us living in the city would go to sleep expecting a large overnight attack but knowing that it would probably be followed by a normal workday. Today we live with constant sirens and chaos.

So far, Kyiv has borne the brunt of Moscow’s increased bombings. But Russia’s attacks are beginning to hit other relatively protected........

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