Even though President Donald Trump has been talking about taking military action in Iran for months, and made a first foray into the region last June by bombing what was said to be its largest nuclear facility, it unfolded as somewhat of a surprise when he announced the ongoing military campaign in Iran on social media in the early hours of Saturday morning.

So far, very little feels different in the economy. There’s been a lot of talk about oil prices—which is not surprising given the Persian Gulf’s importance in the natural resource—but the stock markets and commodity prices seem to be steady. Maybe the economy has absorbed so many big shocks in recent months—ranging from tariffs to domestic immigration crackdowns to sizable changes in energy policy to AI advancements—that it’s hard for investors to see how a war in the Middle East could really make a difference on its own. The U.S. has already ramped up military spending, is using new surveillance tools and has reshuffled relationships with many foreign countries.

However, if Trump’s rhetoric holds up, the wartime economy will need to kick in soon. He wrote on Truth Social last night that wars can be fought “forever” because the U.S. has a “virtually unlimited supply” of high-end weapons. At some point, new, big and potentially disruptive choices will have to be made to keep that supply coming—and to commit the resources to keep the war going.

Much of the economy has already seen a slowdown, and companies are likely experiencing it firsthand in their accounts receivable as some entities are taking longer to pay. I spoke with Jared Shulman, CEO and cofounder of AI-powered accounts receivable software platform Daylit, about what CFOs should pay attention to and how they should move forward. An excerpt from our conversation is later in this newsletter.

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The U.S. partnered with Israel and, in the early hours of Saturday, began an extensive military campaign in Iran. U.S. and Israeli bombs hit targets in several cities across the country, killing hundreds—including Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Throughout the weekend, the war spread, with at least six Americans killed and reports of counterstrikes in Israel and locations in countries including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The attacks have heightened instability in the Middle East, as the UAE, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait reported deaths in the hostilities.

Wall Street opened a bit down on Monday, though the major indexes rebounded throughout the day and closed slightly up. Considering that uncertainty about the situation in Iran fueled spikes in gold and silver in recent weeks, the resilience of the market is somewhat surprising—as is the fact that markets closed Monday with gold only increasing a relatively modest 1.7%.

Oil futures crested, as Brent crude spiked to nearly $79 a barrel on Monday morning, reaching its highest level in 12 months. On Monday, crude oil prices on the NYMEX were up about 7%, writes Forbes’ Christopher Helman, who described it as a modest reaction given the amount of oil infrastructure disrupted by the attacks. Helman writes that the relatively minor response means it’s highly........

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