While some sectors of the broader economy seem to be slowing down as the war in Iran continues, the stock market and oil prices are ping-ponging up and down—mostly based on remarks or social media posts from President Donald Trump and his top advisors.

After a week of falling fortunes on Wall Street, the stock market quickly regained momentum Monday following an early morning Truth Social post in which Trump touted “productive conversations” with Iran about an end to U.S. hostilities. In the post, Trump said he was postponing military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. When markets opened for the week hours later, the Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 all gained more than a point. And Brent crude oil prices dropped from $108.26 to $93.85 following his post.

Have these “productive conversations” actually happened? It’s unclear—Iran’s foreign ministry denied having talks with the U.S., claiming that Trump’s remarks were an effort to reduce energy prices and buy time. Considering that the desired outcome of the war is still in question, it could be the case. And while this kind of short-term spike may be a boon for investors and traders, an actual and lasting change in the status quo is what businesses need to move forward with more clarity.

Businesses need to play the long game in order to succeed, and part of that is building and bolstering their reputations. Public relations firm Burson took a close look at how reputations are built, how they pay off in terms of business, and they quantified just how much reputation matters. I talked to CEO Corey duBrowa about how reputation helps your bottom line and how it can be improved. An excerpt from our conversation is later in this newsletter.

I will be taking a break next week, and Forbes CEO will not send on Monday, March 30. We’ll be back in your inboxes on Monday, April 6.

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As we enter the fourth week of war in Iran, economists are warning of a potential recession if the trend of broadly falling markets and rising consumer gas prices continue, with Moody’s issuing 49% odds that the economy will hit that breaking point in the next 12 months. The markets spent last week on a pretty steady decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting 2026 lows late last week, and nearing correction territory on Friday.

Gas prices continued to rise as well. On Monday, AAA pegged the national average price at nearly $3.96 a gallon—more than $1 more than a year ago. And while that’s high, diesel prices have risen much more, hitting nearly $5.29 a gallon. Because diesel fuel powers trucks that haul goods across the country, analysts say that the trickle-down effect will hit consumers soon. Food prices may see one of the biggest spikes, considering most food is moved by truck, and diesel also powers the equipment used to prepare and cultivate farmland.

Not surprisingly, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee opted last week to hold interest rates steady, mentioning in a statement that “implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.” Forbes senior contributor Simon Moore writes the Fed is likely to continue to take a more careful look at the economic picture this year when looking at interest rates. After all, the Iran war and energy prices is just one big economic question mark. Another is tariffs. After last week’s meeting, Powell said that tariff inflation—consumer price increases due to new import taxes—tends to take between eight months and a year to impact consumers. And even........

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