As the war in Iran continues, economic optimism is falling—at least for the first half of 2026. Forbes senior contributor Bill Conerly breaks down what this means for executives: The strain on energy exports caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a recession at worst and, at best, will mean a change in strategy.

It’s unclear how long the conflict will continue, but Conerly suggests that CFOs take a close look at their companies’ exposure to all risks. How much would a recession impact the business? How much do oil prices impact your operations? And are there any plans to put on hold?

As finances may be getting tenuous, it’s a good time for companies to evaluate their revenue sources and consider whether any can be transformed into a new line of business. Thales, a software and defense company, works with businesses to monetize something they might not suspect is so valuable: customized and internally developed software that could be useful to others in their industry. I spoke with Vice President of Software Monetization Damien Bullot about this possibility, and an excerpt from our conversation appears later in this newsletter.

I will be taking a break next week, and Forbes CFO will not send on Tuesday, March 31. We’ll be back in your inboxes on Tuesday, April 7.

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While some sectors of the broader economy seem to be slowing down as the war in Iran enters its fourth week, the stock market and oil prices are ping-ponging up and down—mostly based on remarks or social media posts from President Donald Trump and his top advisors.

After a week of falling fortunes on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting 2026 lows late last week, the stock market quickly regained momentum Monday following an early morning Truth Social post in which Trump touted “productive conversations” with Iran about an end to U.S. hostilities. In the post, Trump said he was postponing military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. When markets opened for the week hours later, the Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 all gained more than a point. And Brent crude oil prices dropped from $108.26 to $93.85 following his post. The “relief rally” continued throughout the day, with many stocks closing higher and Brent crude prices staying below $100 a barrel.

Have these “productive conversations” actually happened? It’s unclear—Iran’s foreign ministry denied having talks with the U.S., claiming that Trump’s remarks were an effort to reduce energy prices and buy time. Considering that the desired outcome of the war is still in question, it could be the case. While this kind of short-term spike may be a boon for investors and traders, an actual, lasting change in the status quo is what businesses need to move forward with greater clarity.

Prices at the gas pump aren’t as immediately impacted by market fluctuations, and drivers are paying more. On Tuesday morning, average prices were nearly $3.98 a gallon, and analyst........

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