We’re now two months out from the 2026 midterm elections, and in some ways, the outcome is even more uncertain than usual. The basic rules of how votes are cast and counted are still up in the air thanks to Donald Trump’s last-minute effort to give the U.S. Postal Service the power to decide who is entitled to vote.

But election forecasters are still hard at work, and we do have a good idea of how the post-midterms partisan power configuration might affect the remainder of Trump’s second term. Some very small variations in the House and Senate results could have a very big impact on Washington. Here’s a look at the three basic scenarios.

. Scenario No. 1: Republican Sweep

Republicans holding the House would be pretty remarkable since midterms almost always produce losses in the chamber for the party holding the White House and the GOP has only a two-seat cushion. In addition, the president’s job-approval ratings are chronically low, which has on every single occasion in living memory produced significant House losses. The only reason Mike Johnson has a realistic chance of remaining Speaker is that the battleground of competitive races is smaller than usual, reducing Democratic flip opportunities. On top of that, Republicans have an unusually abundant number of flip targets of their own due to the Trump-orchestrated wave of partisan gerrymanders that began in the summer of 2025. It also doesn’t hurt that the GOP has a big national money advantage.

Republicans holding the Senate is much less........

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