Democrats have reason to hope that a “blue wave” in the midterm elections, fed by Donald Trump’s unpopularity, will help them flip the House and maybe even the Senate this year. National dynamics are typically less decisive in state elections, including the 36 gubernatorial elections on tap. But nationwide trends do shape the electorate that will vote up and down the ballot, so Democrats expect gubernatorial gains, too.

Republicans have controlled a majority of governorships for 28 of the past 32 years, dating back to the GOP landslide election of 1994. They currently hold a 26 to 24 advantage in governorships. It’s not higher because Democrats have done marginally better at winning the top job in presidential battleground states, as Sabato’s Crystal Ball explained.

Both parties are defending 18 governorships this year. The results probably won’t massively change the national partisan balance. Cook Political Report rates 13 races as safely Democratic and another ten as safely Republican. But the gubernatorial races could add some key national battleground states to either party’s arsenal while also affecting future gerrymandering opportunities. Odds are good that some governors will be future presidential candidates (17 presidents had been governors), and many will serve in the Senate (11 current senators are former governors).

So these races are a big deal. And quite a few are competitive. Cook and Sabato rate eight contests as either toss-ups or leaning in one direction or another. Sabato has just added a ninth — Alaska — which Cook will likely soon recognize as well. Here’s where the two parties stand in each of the competitive gubernatorial contests.

A reliably red state in presidential elections, Alaska has become very competitive at the state level. This is partly because Democrats have created partnerships with independents (multiparty coalitions control the legislature) and partly because of the state’s unique election system in which the top four finishers in a nonpartisan primary proceed to a general election featuring ranked-choice voting.

This system arguably gives the one Democratic post-primary survivor in the governor’s race — former state legislator Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins — a leg up on the two viable Republicans still in the race (conservative media personality Bernadette Wilson and former Anchorage mayor Dave Bronson).

Sabato’s Crystal Ball now treats this gubernatorial contest as a toss-up alongside the state’s very close Senate race between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and former Democratic U.S. House member Mary Peltola. If Kreiss-Tomkins wins, it will represent a net gain for his party (incumbent Republican Mike Dunleavy is term limited). Incidentally, Alaska voters will again pass judgment in November on a Republican-backed ballot initiative to junk the current electoral system and go back to partisan primaries. (A similar measure narrowly lost in 2024.)

Donald Trump carried this battleground state by a surprisingly large 5.5 percent in 2024, but it repudiated close Trump ally Kari Lake’s Senate bid at the same time. Lake was also the GOP nominee in 2022, losing a very close race to Katie Hobbs, who is a narrow favorite to win reelection. Hobbs is reasonably popular per the most recent Morning Consult job-approval numbers with a net approval rating of 11 percent.

Her advantage owes a lot to the Arizona GOP’s determination to run extremist statewide candidates. The early front-runner for the GOP nomination this year was wealthy Establishment Republican Karrin Taylor Robson, who narrowly lost to Lake in 2022. She........

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