Unifor workers march in a Labour Day parade in Toronto. Photo by Mary Crandall.

Canada’s labour movement dodged a bullet in April’s federal election. The bullet from the right was deflected slightly off course by the collective decision of Canadian voters to consolidate the centre-left vote behind Marc Carney’s Liberals. But it was a very close call after surging and ebbing political waves saw a late shift of working class voters back towards the Conservatives—the presumptive winners until the new American imperialism threatened Canadian sovereignty and fundamentally shifted the dynamic and direction of federal politics.

Canadian unions welcomed the result with relief and are now searching for points of influence and collaboration with the Carney government to hold the line on past gains and defend worker interests in the ongoing trade war and the coming program of “nation-building” projects. There are a few seats for labour at several of the new government’s tables, but unions are one of many interest groups in the ever-widening ‘Team Canada’ camp. Moreover, Canadian labour is stumbling into a new political era with a substantial list of political problems. Foremost is the gaping reality that its 2025 campaign had only a modest impact on Canadian workers and its lack of a cohesive, uniting political strategy left the labour movement up for grabs.

Neither the labour movement nor the NDP was able to slow or reverse the global “dealignment” trend (about which I recently wrote in CD), which has seen working class voters around the world abandon traditional parties of the working class and move towards right-wing populism. When the votes were counted, it was clear that working class dealignment in Canada was even more pronounced. If the election had been determined by working class votes alone, Poilievre’s right-wing populism and fake “working class conservatism” may well have prevailed. According to a post-election analysis by EKOS Politics, the Conservative surge was “driven in large part by right-wing populists… younger, overwhelmingly male, centred on college educated, stronger in working class, not middle class, Canada.”

As the Carney government approaches 100 days in office, it enjoys majority approval ratings and the Conservative tide in the late days of the election campaign has subsided. But the deep divisions in the working class that have grown over a decade remain. The 2025 election results were a powerful message that a non-partisan dialogue with millions of workers cannot be further delayed.

And while some unions are waiting to jump into the election review and leadership renewal process in the NDP that will commence in September, so far there is no sign yet that the labour movement itself will undertake a review of its own political performance and strategies.

There is no point in glossing over the growing conservatism in a large section of the working class, including among union memberships. In 2025, several high union density constituencies saw large swings to the Conservative Party, flipping crucial ridings such as Windsor West with a 23 percent increase in the Tory vote.

Conservative flips in other ridings including Brampton West, London—Fanshawe, and Kichener South in Ontario’s manufacturing belt, and former NDP ridings in BC like Skeena—Bulkley Valley, Nanaimo—Ladysmith and Cowichan—Malahat—Langford, garnered most media attention. However, measured against 2015 when union votes played a decisive role in defeating the Harper government by driving down union member support for Conservatives to 24 percent, there has been a steady increase in the Conservative vote across most “working class” constituencies. In 50 selected heavily working class ridings in English Canada defined by waged income, manual labour, manufacturing and service sector employment and education, average support for the Conservatives increased incrementally in each election—a six percent increase from 2015 to 2025 across these ridings.

Since 2015, growing Conservative support had been partly masked by a decade of Liberal governments that repealed anti-labour legislation, expanded social programs, and openly endorsed union rights and collective bargaining. Public attitudes toward unions became more........

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