When US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi exchange warm words about “friendship” and “limitless potential,” one could be forgiven for thinking a historic economic breakthrough is just around the corner. Both leaders, in their recent statements, emphasized optimism about ongoing trade talks, projecting confidence that an agreement will soon be reached. Yet beneath this cordial rhetoric lies a thicket of contradictions, competing interests, and external pressures that make a clean resolution far less certain than the carefully crafted posts on Truth Social or X suggest.

At the heart of the problem is Washington’s decision to impose tariffs of up to 50% on Indian products, a move justified by Trump as punishment for India’s continued purchases of Russian oil and defense equipment. The penalties, rolled out in two phases over the past month, were explicitly framed as part of America’s broader strategy to deprive Moscow of financial and strategic resources for its war in Ukraine. By linking trade policy with foreign policy, Trump has essentially forced Modi into a corner: comply with US demands to scale back ties with Russia or pay the price through restricted access to the lucrative American market.

India, however, is not a minor player that can be bullied into submission. As the world’s fifth-largest economy and a critical partner in the Indo-Pacific, New Delhi has carefully cultivated a policy of “strategic autonomy.” That policy has allowed India to strengthen ties........

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