“When the well’s dry, we know the worth of water,” Benjamin Franklin once observed. In the 21st century, the essence of this proverb finds a modern parallel in the geopolitics of energy. For a nation like India, heavily reliant on imported crude oil, the latest Western sanctions targeting Russian energy exports have sparked a strategic recalibration. These measures, while primarily aimed at weakening Russia’s revenue streams, have reverberated across the global oil market, leaving energy-importing countries like India to grapple with a maze of logistical, economic, and political challenges.

The US and its allies have progressively tightened sanctions on Russia since 2022 in response to the Ukraine conflict. The latest wave of measures targets not just Russian oil sales but also the logistical ecosystem, including tankers, insurance services, and trading entities linked to Russia’s energy sector. Designed to cripple Moscow’s economy, these sanctions have also disrupted global oil flows, creating volatility in markets and compelling countries like India to reevaluate their energy strategies.

In January 2024, Brent crude prices surged to $81.01 per barrel, while WTI crude hit $78.82. These price hikes reflect the tightening global supplies and heightened uncertainty triggered by the sanctions. With 40 percent of its crude imports in 2024 sourced from Russia, India has found itself navigating uncharted waters, balancing its energy needs with geopolitical realities.

The latest sanctions present a significant logistical hurdle for countries relying on Russian crude. Restrictions on tanker capacity, insurance services, and financial transactions have raised costs and threatened supply chains. To mitigate the immediate impact, Indian refiners have begun restructuring their operations, avoiding blacklisted........

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