Adam Isacson

Adam Isacson

Director for Defense Oversight

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With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

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Preliminary data indicate that Border Patrol apprehended fewer migrants at the border in November than any month since July 2020. An expected post-election rush, with migrants seeking to get to the United States before Donald Trump’s inauguration, has not happened. In southern Mexico, though, people appear to be arriving in larger numbers and seeking to migrate in large groups.

President-Elect Trump appeared to pull down his November 25 threat to slap tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods until they stop the entry of migrants and drugs, following a reportedly cordial phone call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. However, Sheinbaum showed a willingness to push back, disputing Trump’s characterization of what was agreed. A future area of disagreement may be Mexico’s willingness to accept deportations of migrants from third countries.

This section lists several analyses and reports about the incoming administration’s hardline approach to the border and migration. Topics include potential use of the U.S. military, the Texas state government’s crackdown serving as a model or template, the shaky future of alternative migration pathways, and signs that at least some Democrats are moving rightward.

“U.S. authorities made about 46,700 arrests for illegally crossing the border from Mexico in November, down about 17 percent from October to a new low for Joe Biden’s presidency,” reported the Associated Press’s Elliot Spagat. That preliminary figure would be the fewest people crossing unauthorized between border ports of entry since July 2020, early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Data table

The chart depicts migration rising in the final months of the Trump administration, as the “Title 42” pandemic expulsions policy ceased to deter people from coming to the border. Migrant apprehensions jumped higher in early 2021, after Donald Trump left office and the world’s borders reopened nearly a year into the pandemic.

Border Patrol apprehensions then dropped in January 2024 as Mexico’s government, at the Biden administration’s behest, started cracking down harder on migrants transiting the country. The chart shows a further drop in June 2024 as the Biden administration banned most asylum access between border ports of entry, in a move that continues to face legal challenges.

No rush to the border has materialized in the month since Donald Trump’s November 5 presidential election victory. Events have not borne out the expectation that migrants stranded in Mexico would seek to get to U.S. soil before January 20, when Trump is to take office and begin carrying out hardline border and migration policies.

A pre-inauguration increase in migration remains possible. The Mexican daily Excelsior reported from Nogales that Mexican smugglers, sensing migrants’ increased motivation, have raised their fees since Trump’s election. Other media reports have pointed to greater numbers of people turning themselves in to U.S. authorities in Texas, especially in the Del Rio Sector near Eagle Pass, a region that has been relatively quiet in 2024. Across from Eagle Pass, in Piedras Negras, Coahuila, the University of Texas Strauss Center’s latest quarterly report on asylum processing found “an increase in the number of migrants passing through.” One cause may be “bus companies beginning to transport migrants to the city........

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