When the George W. Bush administration launched the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq more than two decades ago, China found itself in an extraordinarily favorable strategic position. While the United States devoted vast military, political, and financial resources to the Middle East, Beijing largely stayed out of the fray, quietly “concealing its strengths and biding its time” — concentrating on building its economic, technological, and military power.

A decade later, Washington extracted itself from those conflicts, only to find a radically different China — one that had transformed from a rising regional power into America’s principal global competitor.

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Today, as the U.S. becomes increasingly entangled in war with Iran, it is tempting to assume Beijing will once again be the primary geopolitical beneficiary of another American Middle Eastern quagmire. However, this war carries a fundamentally different calculus.

For both the U.S. and China, this Iranian conflict is a double-edged sword, and the results depend on who can better manage the situation.

On one hand, Beijing undoubtedly benefits from a prolonged clash that diverts American strategic focus and consumes U.S. military resources. Every missile, interceptor, and precision weapon expended in the........

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