Before and after the United States began its current action against Iran, commentators claimed that the operation would overstretch the U.S. military. They raised concerns about weakening deterrence and readiness against China. But deterrence rests on credibility. If the U.S. lacks the munitions required to sustain even a lower-grade conflict, its warnings carry less weight. This is why the complaints about depleted ammunition stocks miss the larger point. The problem is not that the U.S. is burning through munitions. It’s that the U.S. defense investments have not reflected changed geopolitical realities.

Five weeks into Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. Navy has fired over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles. Prior to the conflict, annual Tomahawk production stood........

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