‘One way or the other’: Trump’s threats send oil prices surging

October 26, 2026 — 8:58am

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The flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has returned to something close to pre-war levels. So why has the price surged again to near six-month highs?

After trading below $US100 a barrel last month, the price climbed to just under $US117 a barrel last week, with pricing in the futures market suggesting it could still be trading above $US100 a barrel well into next year.

That’s despite shipments from the Middle East running close to their pre-war levels as the volume of oil on tankers being escorted through the strait by the US navy – and some tankers that appear to be paying Iranian fees for safe passage – have rebounded.

Flows through Saudi Arabia’s pipeline to the Red Sea have also picked up, despite Houthi attacks on the pipeline and the port of Yanbu.

The prince’s bet on Trump is blowing up in his face

Last week the UK’s Maritime Trade Operations Centre (UKMTO) reported 11 confirmed attacks in the strait last week. However, the real number is probably higher given the UKMTO says most targeted ships don’t report the attacks. Other authorities claim there have been at least 28 incidents so far this month.

If the oil is flowing, why has the price taken off again?

Part of the explanation may be that while more oil might be reaching the global market, the cost of getting it there has exploded.

The cost of chartering a tanker to carry oil........

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