After a surprisingly delightful, Barbenheimer-themed Oscars in 2024, this year’s nominations are a return to form. As per usual, the nominees are a mix of the past year’s most tasteful blockbusters, like Wicked: Part 1 and Dune: Part 2; a handful of smaller but buzzy films that the average moviegoer is at least partly familiar with, like Conclave and Anora; and the sort of stereotypical Oscar bait that earns the awards show its “out-of-touch” label, like the year’s most nominated film Emilia Pérez.

Compared to last year’s ceremony, which honored both populist and surprise indie hits, this current slate of nominees feels like a bit of a digression. It’s not that the year’s frontrunners don’t have their enthusiasts, although mostly on Letterboxd. Rather, this year’s Oscars are noticeably lacking in movies that mass audiences can strongly agree are masterpieces. Sure, plenty of contenders have compelling premises, but it’s still debatable whether many of these movies, like The Brutalist or Anora, actually succeed in their execution.

Nevertheless, this year’s sometimes curious nominations have plenty to tell us about 2024 in cinema. While the opinions of the mostly white, male Academy don’t necessarily account for the average moviegoer, they provide an interesting recap of the past year and reveal some trends that could persist over the next few years.

The strikes made things weird

Despite receiving five Oscars nominations, including Best Picture, Dune: Part 2 was surprisingly easy to forget throughout awards season. It was certainly much less of a conversation-starter than other buzzy movies that came out this year. Star Timothée Chalamet’s turn as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, plus his overbearing press tour for that role, totally overshadowed his part in Denis Villeneuve’s film. The timing of its release also made it a bit of a nonfactor by last summer.

Due to the 2023 writers’ and actors’ strikes, the sequel was pushed from its October 2023 release date to March 1, 2024. One wonders whether the movie would’ve been a bigger talking point this awards season if not for its Q1 release. Perhaps then Austin Butler actually would’ve had a shot in the Best Supporting Actor category.

On the other hand, it seems like Challengers, which received zero nominations, also may have made a bigger splash if it hadn’t been repeatedly rescheduled. Like Dune: Part 2, the strikes also prevented the movie from its original release in fall 2023. It was also set to premiere at the 2023 Venice........

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