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The world doesn’t have enough ammo for the Iran War

How long can Iran keep shooting missiles? How long can everyone else keep shooting them down?

The duration of the US-Israel may come down to ammunition stockpiles, as both sides face mounting strain in an expensive missile-and-interceptor arms race.

While US and Israeli strikes have severely degraded Iran’s missile infrastructure and launch capacity, Iran is adapting by spreading out targets, relying on cheaper drones, and aiming to inflict psychological and economic pain rather destroy military targets.

Even with high interception rates, the staggering cost and limited production of advanced US defense systems like Patriot and THAAD risk depleting Western stockpiles, with global ripple effects that could shape future conflicts beyond the Middle East.

President Donald Trump has suggested that the US-Israeli air campaign in Iran will continue until “they cry uncle, or when they can’t fight any longer.” Iran’s foreign minister has said their own military will fight “as long as it takes” and that they have little interest in negotiating a ceasefire.

But continuing the war isn’t just a question of will; it’s a question of means. And one key constraint on how long the conflict might rage is how much ammunition each side has to continue it. Currently, it’s an arms race between Iranian missiles and drones and US, Israeli, and Gulf State countermeasures to shoot them down. And while the answers to questions about their capacity are closely guarded, there are signs of strain on both sides.

With its conventional military overmatched and its network of regional allies badly degraded, Iran’s main remaining means of “fighting” is its missile and drone stockpile.

Iran has fired thousands of missiles and one-way attack drones at 13 countries, killing at least 43 people, according to data compiled by the Israeli think tank INSS. These include seven US servicemembers. Iran has struck a wide range of targets, from US military bases to luxury hotels in Dubai to Amazon data centers. On Wednesday, three ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz came under drone attack as part of Iran’s effort to shut down one of the key chokepoints of the world energy market.

This is dwarfed by the damage that has been inflicted by the US and Israel on Iran, where more than 1,200 people have been killed according to Iranian authorities, and much of the country’s military and political infrastructure has been destroyed.

But Iran’s attacks would have been far worse for the wider region if the countries they were going after didn’t have such strong defenses against missiles and drones. Most of the countries that have been heavily targeted appear to be successfully intercepting over 90 percent of the projectiles Iran has fired at them.

Doing so is not easy, however. Interceptors are among the world’s most sophisticated and in-demand weapons, and the........

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