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The US was overconfident before the war. Iran may be overconfident now.

Iran may have bitten off more than it can chew in the Strait of Hormuz.

If you can think back to the distant days of March 2026, you’ll remember that the US-Iran war was, at one point, primarily a conflict over Iran’s nuclear program, though at times it was also about Iran’s treatment of protesters, threat to Israel, missile program, and support for regional proxies.

This week’s return to fighting in the Middle East made clear that the US-Iran conflict is now primarily a fight over Iran’s ability to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint.

Iranians believe control of the Strait is both a deterrent against future attacks and a potential source of revenue. But there are signs it may be overplaying its hand.

Ultimately, the longer the situation in the Strait stays chaotic, the more Iran’s rivals are likely to lose patience, either looking for workarounds or returning to war.

At this point, however, it’s now clear that it’s about something entirely different, and something that wasn’t even an issue until this conflict began more than four months ago: Iran’s ability to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s ability to use cheap drones and missiles to throttle ship traffic through the crucial waterway, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally transits, became, during the war, its primary source of leverage against the US. Iran’s new leaders now view de facto control of the Strait as their primary deterrent against future attacks by their enemies — an arguably more effective and flexible deterrent than their nuclear program ever was — as well as a potential source of revenue via tolls and fees. Iranian officials have in recent days variously described the Strait as a “golden weapon” and a “divine blessing.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called it Iran’s “economic nuclear weapon.”

This week, however, as violence flared again in the region, there were some indications that Iran might be overestimating the power of that weapon and its ability to coerce and deter its enemies.

A return to war in the Gulf

This week, Iranian leaders showed how far they’re willing to go to protect their “divine blessing,” attacking three ships transiting the Strait with missiles. The ships were traveling through a corridor close to the coast of Oman, under recommendation from the UN’s International Maritime Organization, and........

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