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How people are making millions on the Iran war

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are testing the moral and ethical limits of betting.

Bettors on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have wagered hundreds of millions of dollars on the current conflict in Iran. Which means lots and lots of folks are trying to get rich betting on wars.

In the lead-up to the United States and Israel’s attack on Iran, prediction markets saw a frenzy of activity tied to the conflict. Users of prediction markets were putting down money on when the first bombs would drop, as well as where the bombs might hit. But one of the most active markets had people betting on whether Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah ​Ali Khamenei would leave office before March 1. He was killed on February 28.

“So on Polymarket, there’s a ton of different bets you can make,” Kate Knibbs, a senior writer for Wired, told Today, Explained co-host Sean Rameswaram. “I think they actually just took down some of the markets for missile strikes because of all the backlash that has been going on in response to the fact that you can bet on war because it’s so dystopian.”

This sort of thing has happened in sports and sports betting for years. And it seems likely to happen much more often in response to news events thanks to prediction markets too. Because as Knibbs spelled out to Rameswaram, these markets are becoming increasingly popular. They have the Trump administration on their side. And folks across the globe seem absorbed with the idea of betting on war.

Below is an excerpt of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s much more in the full podcast, so listen to Today, Explained wherever you get podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, Pandora, and Spotify.

What kind of bets are people making on the war in Iran?

Especially on Polymarket, there’s a ton........

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