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A bad news day for Trump’s economy, briefly explained

Jobs numbers down, gas prices up.

This story appeared in The Logoff, a daily newsletter that helps you stay informed about the Trump administration without letting political news take over your life. Subscribe here.

Welcome to The Logoff: The fundamentals of the American economy are…starting to look a little concerning.

What happened? On Friday, we learned that the US economy shed some 92,000 jobs last month — a far cry from a predicted gain of 50,000 and a signal about the overall health of the economy.

Unemployment also edged up slightly to 4.4 percent, and jobs numbers from December were revised downward, from a gain of 48,000 to a loss of 17,000. The economy still gained jobs in January, but overall, those revisions meant job growth over the last three months was negligible.

What’s the context? Friday’s economic news comes at an especially bad time for President Donald Trump, who is currently also staring down an economic shock of his own making. The cost of oil has been rising all week thanks to the war in Iran, which has thrown a significant portion of the global energy supply into chaos.

In the US, gas prices are up to $3.32/gallon on average, almost 34 cents over last Friday. As my colleague Eric Levitz has written, more expensive gas doesn’t just mean short-term pain for consumers; unchecked, rising oil prices could both boost inflation and slow economic growth.

What’s the big picture? For now, both Friday’s jobs numbers and rising energy prices are best thought of as warning signs — not good news, but not catastrophes, either. That could well change, though, as Trump’s open-ended war continues.

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And with that, it’s time to log off…

Hi, readers, some good news: We’re not done with the Olympics yet. If you’re craving more curling, the Winter Paralympics started today. NPR has a great primer here, and I also enjoyed this story from The Athletic (a gift link) on the technological advances behind sit skis, which some Para athletes use in downhill events.

As always, thanks for reading, have a great weekend, and we’ll see you back here on Monday!

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