Texas Republican primary shows MAGA isn't always a gimme
It seems like all eyes were on Texas' primaries on March 3, and as results started rolling in, one thing was clear: Republican and Democratic voters are torn on what they want for their respective parties.
For Republicans, neither incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn nor rival Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton reached the 50% threshold, so the two are heading to a runoff. That election will be held on May 26.
There were a few more notable GOP races: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott won his Republican primary handily, and I predict he will ultimately beatDemocratic challenger Gina Hinojosa in November.
In what appears to be headed toward an upset, incumbent U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, the Navy SEAL turned U.S. congressman, trails his challenger, Steve Toth, in House District 2.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Senate primary between state Rep. James Talarico and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett is still too close to call. It will be so contested that Crockett has already threatened to sue after some voting confusion in Dallas County.
What we saw in Texas were elections in which voters were asked to pick a path forward for both parties, and just how conflicted they appear to be.
Paxton is marred by controversy. Cornyn is the sensible choice.
The Republican race for the U.S. Senate is the most obvious example of the tough decision for voters.
I'm not surprised to see a runoff but as a conservative, I'm concerned. It's clear that Texans seem to be torn about which direction they want the GOP to go − Cornyn represents the old guard establishment and Paxton the scandal-ridden MAGA.
A runoff between Cornyn and Paxton will likely force President Donald Trump to endorse one of the two. My guess is he'll choose Cornyn to keep the Senate majority, because the incumbent has a better chance of beating the Democratic candidate than the attorney general does.
Paxton's reputation is marred by controversy. Among those are a 2023 impeachment trial that cost Texas $5.1 million (he was acquitted), a messy divorce and a securities fraud scandal that finally reached a settlement in 2024 after nearly a decade.
The fact that half of the Republicans who voted in this primary would even consider Paxton at all for the U.S. Senate, because the Texas attorney general aligns with the populist MAGA base, is troublesome to conservatives like me who want change.
Crockett is too extreme for Texas, but Talarico won't turn the state blue
For Democrats, I hope that primary voters eventually choose Crockett because she would be easier for a Republican to beat in November. For a state that's held a Republican majority for years, Crockett looks too extreme. But even the Democratic majority here − at least the ones who turned out for this primary − are more moderate. I hope they choose Talarico, a much more moderate Texas kind of Democrat.
I still think either Cornyn or Paxton will ultimately beat Talarico, but it will be a tighter race now. That's not a bad thing for Republicans. They still need to prove to Texans why conservatism is better for them at a local and national level.
On Feb. 25, CNN's data analyst Harry Enten posted on X that Texas Democrats "may outvote the GOP for the 1st time in a midterm primary since 2002!" Enten went on to say that since 2006, the party with the higher primary turnout won the House every time.
A high Democratic turnout in a presidential midterm year should concern Republicans just as much as the fact that the quality of the candidates Democrats have chosen to represent them has also improved. Talarico is a far cry from the abysmal and unqualified former Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who ran for Senate in 2018 and lost to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, enjoyed a brief bid for the 2020 presidential race before endorsing Joe Biden and then ran for governor in 2022 against Gov. Greg Abbott, and lost.
Voters were asked to pick the future of their party in Texas in this primary. It appears they're not yet convinced of what they want. As a Texan, I'm invested in what happens next and what it means for the bigger political picture.
Nicole Russell is an opinion columnist with USA TODAY. She lives in Texas with her four kids. This column originally appeared on USATODAY.com
