Texas is famous for its punchy slogans: “Everything’s bigger in Texas,” “Don’t Mess with Texas” and, my personal favorite, “All hat, no cattle.” After nearly eight years of calling this state home, I’ve come to see that these aren’t just clever sayings; they capture something real about the culture and character of the place.

So much so that our U.S. Senate primary race feels less like a campaign and more like one of those slogans springing to life.

On March 3, Texas voters will choose who will represent both parties on the November general election ballot. The Senate race is particularly interesting because the candidates are all quite different but still have pretty strong name recognition.

For Democrats, the choice is tightening between moderate state Rep. James Talarico, 36, and progressive U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who turns 45 this month. For Republicans, the choice lies between the established U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, 74, and the controversial Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, 63. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, 44, trails significantly behind. President Donald Trump hasn't quite said which Republican he'd endorse for Senate.

This is the most interesting primary I've seen in Texas in a while: It's bound to be partisan, news-making and confrontational.

Republican primary is about the GOP going forward

Polls have shown a mixed bag of results leading up to the primary, but the past few days have provided some clarity. In the Republican race, an Emerson College poll shows Paxton ahead of Cornyn by a handful of points.

Cornyn is a member of the old guard of Republicans, endorsed by Senate leadership and some well-known conservative news outlets like the Washington Examiner. But he's at risk of losing a race that should have been easy.

That's primarily because his challenger, Paxton, is a controversial politician known for any number of lawsuits, like Tylenol and Meta, even though I acknowledge that sometimes he wins. He was impeached by the Texas House and acquitted by the state Senate in 2023.

But Texans seem to like Paxton the way MAGA loves Trump. Here, he's seen not as a controversial figure, but as a fighter for the people who have rejected the establishment and given the Republican Party a new identity. I dislike him.

Personally, I like Hunt − a combat veteran and a straightforward guy − but I seem to be the only one; he's trailing Cornyn and Paxton by a lot.

I think Texans need a change. As a conservative, I'd prefer to see that in the form of Hunt rather than Paxton, but I'm prepared to be disappointed.

Democrats will choose between moderate and progressive

A couple of weeks ago, polls signaled the Democratic nod could be anyone’s game. In January, an Emerson College survey found Talarico leading Crockett by 9 points in the primary. A February Texas Public Opinion Research poll found the rivals separated by just 1 point. Now, the latest Emerson poll shows that Talarico leads Crockett by 5 points.

This race is more interesting to me and will be more telling about what Democrats are thinking. Crockett is vocal and combative. She's the kind of progressive politician trying to take over Democratic leadership.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris has tried to give her a nudge. I can understand her popularity among the progressive left. But I'm not sure she can win with Texans, who still tend to be moderate, even if they're Democrats.

The growing popularity of Texas Democratic lawmaker Talarico is a good example of this. The former middle school teacher studied at Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary. He's opposed to Christian nationalism and openly talks about his faith. I disagree with his interpretation of the intersection of politics and religion, but that exact thing could be a huge magnet for Democrats who aren't as far left as Crockett but don't identify as Republicans.

I hope Crockett wins because she has a lower chance of beating a Republican challenger. I think Talarico will be a formidable challenge to a conservative.

Before every midterm and presidential election, I'm asked repeatedly: Will Texas turn blue?

Voters on the right and left alike seem to view Texas as a measurement for politics nationwide. I don't think Texas is turning blue any time soon, but it doesn't mean the primary won't be interesting to watch or a game-changer for the direction of either party. Republicans and Democrats should be watching the election for any signs of where the party is going. I will be.

Nicole Russell is an opinion columnist with USA TODAY. She lives in Texas with her four kids. This column originally appeared on USATODAY.com

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