Democrats may win 2026 – but lose 2028. That's a bad trade
The Democratic Party might have endangered 2028 for 2026. By not excising democratic socialists in their ranks now, Democrats are likely to find the movement even more potent in two years. If so, they will have risked the more important presidential election for the transient reward of a few more congressional seats.
History told us Democrats were likely to win Congress in 2026. Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama both took a beating in their second midterms: Bush's party lost 30 House seats and six Senate seats; Obama's lost 13 House seats and nine Senate seats.
President Donald Trump's job approval is right in line with theirs. As of Oct. 25, it stood at 38.2% in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. At the same point in their presidencies, Bush was at 38% and Obama at 42%.
Midterm losses for the party in the White House have been the rule for decades. And this January, Democrats led the generic congressional ballot by 4 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average – and that was before the war with Iran began in late February.
Yes, Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting, which could net the GOP about 10 House seats, cuts into that advantage, but nowhere near enough to offset historical trends. And it does nothing for Republicans in the Senate.
With strong precedent and current conditions at their backs, now was the time for Democrats to excise the socialists making steady inroads into their party. Prominent Democratic strategists Rahm Emanuel and James Carville, both of whom........
