You’ve heard of old quotes, interviews, and predictions that “aged like milk,” but here’s one that aged like a fine wine.

While astronomer Carl Sagan would likely be the first to scoff at the idea of him being a fortune teller, the man certainly had a prescient way of looking ahead during his lifetime. Sagan was the original host of a show called “Cosmos” back in 1980 and it became the most watched show in public television history. Sometimes called the “Mister Rogers of science,” few science communicators have been able to match Sagan’s talent for stoking wonder about the universe and our place in it.

Sagan passed away in 1996, 30 years ago, from pneumonia. He was only 62, and it was a tragedy that he was taken so soon with so much good work left to do.

His final warning was about all of us

Shortly before his death, however, Sagan appeared on “Charlie Rose” and made one final prediction: A dire warning about how susceptible America would be to the next “charlatan” politician who might come along.

Sagan said that Americans’ lack of skeptical, scientific thinking could lead to disastrous consequences down the road. As a man who dedicated his life to science and education, he knew exactly how bad things could and would get.

How accurate was his warning?

Today, we can see the problems that are happening due to America’s anti-science streak whether it’s anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theories, or climate change deniers.

Sagan was right, America will suffer due to a lack of scientific skepticism. Not skepticism of sound, peer-reviewed science, but skepticism of salesmen and frauds and conmen who come along and claim to have all the answers despite having put in none of the work.

“We’ve arranged a society on science and technology in which nobody understands anything about science and technology, and this combustible mixture of ignorance and power sooner or later is going to blow up in our faces,” he told Rose. “I mean, who is running the science and technology in a democracy if the people don’t know anything about it?”

He then warned that our lack of critical thinking leaves us vulnerable to those who wish to exploit our ignorance.

“Science is more than a body of knowledge, it’s a way of thinking,” he says. “A way of skeptically interrogating the universe with a fine understanding of human fallibility. If we are not able to ask skeptical questions to interrogate those who tell us that something is true, to be skeptical of those in authority, then we’re up for grabs for the next charlatan, political or religious, who comes ambling along.”

Sagan believes that a democracy cannot function without an educated populace.

“It’s a thing that Jefferson lay great stress on. It wasn’t enough, he said, to enshrine some rights in the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, the people had to be educated and they have to practice their skepticism and their education,” he says. “Otherwise, we don’t run the government, the government runs us.”

What scientific skepticism actually means

One key to remember is that good scientists are inherently skeptical. NASA writes beautifully about the difference between scientific skepticism and the “do your own research” crowd, “Skepticism helps scientists to remain objective when performing scientific inquiry and research. It forces them to examine claims (their own and those of others) to be certain that there is sufficient evidence to back them up. Skeptics do not doubt every claim, only those backed by insufficient evidence or by data that have been improperly collected, are not relevant or cannot support the rationale being made.”

Part of the problem we face in the present is that what constitutes education, including science and technology education, is being debated at the highest levels.

Institutions of higher learning are undergoing attacks by the government, traditional education is being devalued by powerful parts of the political world, and positions that were traditionally filled by public servants with credentialed expertise are now being filled by political loyalists instead.

Critical thinking has also taken a beating. People believe themselves to be “critical thinkers” simply because they go against scientific consensus, but that’s not how critical thinking and skepticism really work. When political ideologies take precedence over genuine scientific inquiry and investigation, we all lose out.

In fact, many believe there is a concerted effort to discredit science; not just for kicks, but because those with ulterior motives need the populace to be uneducated, uninformed, and skeptical of those that might speak truth to power. This is not a new phenomenon, but it’s reached new levels in the modern age.

Have we already reached that place?

Some might even say we’ve already reached the place Sagan tried to warn us about. The “next political charlatan,” certainly sounds more than familiar to some. Of course, that’s up for debate as well, but regardless, Sagan certainly seemed to have his finger on the pulse of humanity’s tendencies. Hopefully people will heed his words and put science education in its rightful place as part of a thriving democracy.

This article originally appeared six years ago. It has been updated.

While a bottle of bubbles might seem out of place in a hospital setting, you might be surprised to learn that, for thousands of children around the world born with cleft lip and palate, they can be a helpful tool in comprehensive cleft care. Lilia, who was born with cleft lip and palate in 2020, is one of the many patients who received this care. 

As a toddler, Lilia underwent two surgeries to treat cleft lip and palate with Operation Smile’s surgical program in Puebla, Mexico. Because of Operation Smile’s comprehensive care, it wasn’t long before her personality transformed: Lilia went from a quiet and withdrawn toddler to an exuberant, curious explorer, babbling, expressing herself with a variety of sounds, and engaging with others like any child her age. 

Lilia is now a healthy five-year-old, with the same cheerful attitude and boundless energy. Her progress is the result of care at every level, from surgery to speech therapy to ongoing support at home—but it’s also evidence that small, sustained interventions throughout it all can make a meaningful difference. 

Cleft Conditions: A Global Problem

Since 1982, Operation Smile has provided cleft lip and cleft palate surgeries to more than 500,000 patients worldwide with the help of generous volunteers and donors. Cleft conditions are congenital conditions, meaning they are present at birth. With cleft lip and palate, the lip or the roof of the mouth do not form fully during fetal development. Cleft conditions put children at risk for malnutrition and poor weight gain, since their facial structure can make feeding challenging. But cleft conditions can have an enormous social impact as well: Common difficulties with speech can leave kids socially isolated and unable to meet the same developmental milestones as their peers. 

Surgery is a vital step in treating cleft conditions, but it’s also just one part of a much larger solution. Organizations like Operation Smile emphasize the importance of multi-disciplinary teams that provide comprehensive, long-term care to patients across many years. This approach, which includes oral care, speech therapy, nutritional support, and psychosocial care, not only aids in physical recovery from surgery but also helps children develop the skills and confidence to eat easily, speak clearly, and engage in everyday life. This ensures that each patient receives the full range of support they need to thrive. 

A Playful (and Powerful) Solution

Throughout a patient’s care, simple tools like bubbles can play a meaningful role from start to finish. 

Immediately before surgery, children are often in a new and unfamiliar environment far from home, some of them experiencing a hospital setting for the first time. When care providers or loved ones blow bubbles, it’s a simple yet effective technique: Not only are the children soothed and distracted, the bubbles also help create a sense of joy and playfulness that eases their anxiety. 

In speech therapy, bubbles can take on an even more important role. Blowing bubbles requires controlled airflow, as well as the ability to form a rounded “O” shape with the lips, which are skills that children with cleft conditions may struggle to develop. Practicing these skills with bubbles allows children to gently strengthen their facial muscles, improve breath control, and support the motor skills needed for speech development. Beyond that, blowing bubbles can help kids connect with their parents or providers in a way that’s playful, comforting, and accessible even for very young patients. 

Finally, bubbles often follow patients with cleft conditions home in the “smile bags” that each patient receives when the surgical procedure is finished. Smile bags, which help continue speech therapy outside of the hospital setting, can contain language enrichment booklets, a mirror, oxygen tubing, and bubbles. While regular practice with motor skills can help with physical recovery, small acts of play help as well, giving kids space to simply enjoy themselves and join in on what peers are able to do.

Bubbles at Home and Beyond

Today, because of Operation Smile’s dedication to comprehensive cleft care, Lilia is now able to make friends and speak clearly, all things that could have been difficult or impossible before. Instead of a childhood defined by limitation, Lilia—and others around the world—can look forward to a childhood filled with joy, learning, discovery, friends, and new possibilities.  

CTA: Lilia’s life was changed for the better with the care she received through Operation Smile. Find out how you can make an impact in other children’s lives by visiting operationsmile.org today. 

If there’s one thing individuals and Fortune 500 companies have in common, it’s the inability to resist a personality test. Employers have long used tests like the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator or the Enneagram to understand their employees better and build more compatible teams. And people in general seem strangely addicted to quizzes that categorize them by personality type.

It’s long been known that most personality tests aren’t scientifically sound, but that doesn’t stop people from taking them. Part of the reason is that those tests tell us something about ourselves as individuals while also making us feel like we’re part of a group identity. They seem to help us understand ourselves and one another better, and thus appear to “work.”

However, as researcher Madelyn Leembruggen explained on SciShow, most personality profiles simply play into a psychological trick we humans easily fall into.

The Barnum effect and how it works

“Personality tests and profiles take advantage of a weird psychological tendency that also benefits everything from horoscopes to fortune tellers to Buzzfeed quizzes,” Leembruggen said. It’s called the Barnum effect.

“The Barnum effect was named after P.T. Barnum, the iconic and problematic showman known for his ability to captivate, and often manipulate, an audience,” she explained. “The Barnum effect is the phenomenon where if you give someone a personality test, they’re pretty likely to believe that the results are true and accurate, regardless of how hard the profile-maker actually tried. There’s something about taking the test itself that makes an audience more likely to believe the end result.”

Personality tests became popular after WWI, when someone developed an assessment to determine which soldiers might be prone to PTSD. In the decades that followed, personality profiles appeared in popular magazines and psychologists’ offices alike. But researcher and college professor Bertram Forer felt skeptical about their accuracy. He basically said the results weren’t any more specific than saying that a person has opposable thumbs.

Professor Forer’s 1949 personality test experiment

In 1949, he conducted an experiment to test his hypothesis. He gave his Intro to Psychology students a personality questionnaire. Then, he told them he’d analyze the results and create a unique personality profile for each student. When they got their results, they rated them for accuracy. Only one student rated their results below a 4 out of 5, indicating nearly all students felt their results reflected their personality. However, Forer had duped them. He had actually given every student the exact same analysis.

“Forer made a list of general, vaguely flattering, and universally relatable statements,” Leembruggen explained. “So, why did everyone believe that their list was so perfectly tailored to them? Well, that’s the Barnum effect.”

Essentially, most personality descriptors in personality profiles are fairly relatable to most people. And when you combine any sense of the trait being positive, most people will see themselves in it.

The SciShow video gives these statements as examples:

“You have an analytical mind, though  you also might space out at times.”

“You pride yourself as an independent thinker, and don’t accept other people’s statements without good proof.”

“You love variety and tend to rebel against too many restrictions and limitations.”

“You don’t always reveal all of yourself to others.”

“You have a great desire for other people to like and admire you.”

Most people see themselves in some, if not all, of those statements because they’re vague enough to feel true.

However, 1949 was a long time ago. Haven’t psychologists gotten better at creating real personality profiles?

How accurate is the Myers-Brigg Type Indicator, though?

One of the most popular personality tests of the past 50 years is the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, or MBTI. This test splits people into 16 personality categories based on combinations of eight traits or preferences: Introversion/Extroversion, Sensing/Intuition, Thinking/Feeling, and Perceiving/Judging. Your “type” would be a combination of four letters, like INTP or ESFJ, with a corresponding description of that personality.

Many people have taken an MBTI test at work, but is it really accurate?

“When researchers want to see how well a certain assessment tool, test, or survey actually works, one thing they’ll do is have the same people take the same test multiple times,” Leembruggen said. “If they get the same score each time, we’d say that tool has good test-retest reliability. And in studies of MBTI where participants took the assessment multiple times, up to........

© Upworthy