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A new analysis of midterm races for the House of Representatives set to take place this fall indicates that only 16 districts are considered true tossups, likely the fewest number of competitive seats seen in a midterm election since such observations began in the 1980s.

The Cook Political Report, which analyzes all 435 House races (as well as Senate races and presidential elections), finds that, as of May 4, 2026 — just six months out from the midterms — 217 seats either “lean,” are “likely,” or are “solid” for Democrats. Meanwhile, 202 seats “lean,” are “likely,” or are “solid” for Republicans.

Democrats have the advantage when it comes to taking control of the legislative chamber, the report suggests. With 217 seats in the “lean” column or better, they would need just one more seat to get a true majority in the House, presuming there are no surprises in the districts the Cook Political Report is predicting they’ll win. Republicans, meanwhile, would need to win all 16 of the tossup seats to reach a majority.

Other prediction sites project similar outcomes. As of Monday, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, for example, is predicting that 217 seats are leaning toward Democrats, while 205 are leaning toward Republicans, with 13 seats up for grabs.

While the two prediction sites are guessing somewhere between 13-16 House seats are considered........

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