Black Sea is a contested neighbourhood with constantly changing dynamics, complex realities, and clashing interests. 

Its position in global connectivity, linking north to south and east to west, as well as its role as a vital trade route for oil and gas, are all important reasons for its increasing relevance. 

Hence, it has become a hub of international players and a cauldron of geopolitical complexities, with several conflicts dotting its contemporary landscape. 

With their far-reaching implications, it has come to “play a strategic role for global security, international trade, energy, and food security”, as a recent European Union document puts it.

Russia’s war on Ukraine in February 2022 – which sparked the biggest armed conflict in Europe since World War II – has heightened security concerns in the old continent, and across the larger Black Sea region. 

The enhanced presence of NATO forces near the Black Sea, in response to perceived threats and as a demonstration of solidarity, has contributed to a broader regional standoff. 

In other words, successive Russian offensives into Ukraine have not only disrupted the political and security dynamics but also inflicted instability within the region.

More recently, however, the US’s changing position under the Trump administration has forced regional countries and European Union members to reassess their security in connection with the perceived Russian threat in the Black Sea region. 

While the announcement of the EU’s new Black Sea Strategy on May 28 last year once again emphasised its interest in the region, it has since been criticised as non-committal, like the earlier Black Sea Synergy policy of March 2010, and without clear guidance for the final aims, and a lack of appropriate policy options.

Why Türkiye matters

While EU-member Black Sea countries, Bulgaria and Romania, have positioned themselves to benefit from whatever the new policy........

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