The prospects for Republicans to maintain control of Congress this fall are grim. Since 1950, the average midterm election loss for the incumbent President’s political party in the U.S. House was 25 seats.  

It may be worse for Republicans in this midterm election. One GOP House member anonymously told Politico that Republicans could suffer a bloodbath and “lose 60 to 70 seats.”

Why the pessimism? The fate of the GOP directly correlates with the political standing of President Donald Trump. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows him with only a 36% approval rating, the lowest of his second term. His approval on economic issues was 29%, while 35% approved of the military strikes against Iran. Since the war began, gas prices have risen by $1 per gallon, which has contributed to his unpopularity.

The poll indicated that 40% of Republicans believed the economy was either “somewhat” or “very” “weak,” and 34% of the GOP respondents disapproved of the President’s “handling of the cost of living.”

The falling poll numbers are especially dramatic among Hispanic voters, who were critical to President Trump's 2024 victory. According to The Economist, Trump’s support among Hispanic voters has dropped from 48% in 2024 to 22% today.

Another key voting bloc that propelled Trump to victory in 2024 was young men under 30. Unfortunately for Republicans, the President’s support among that group has dropped by 20%.  CNN Data Analyst Harry Enten said, “Trump won in 2024 because of men. They are abandoning him right now.”

Along with the economy, the conflict in Iran is a factor in the President’s falling poll numbers. It is a controversial issue among many Republican elected officials and conservative broadcasters.

For example,........

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