A low-cost first-person-view drone catches up with a tank or armored vehicle and destroys it. Another piece of expensive military equipment is lost, seemingly proving that unmanned systems now dominate the battlefield. After countless reports from the Russia-Ukraine war, this conclusion may appear convincing. But it can also be misleading.

Ukraine has truly revolutionized the use of unmanned systems. Drones have transformed reconnaissance, logistics, and precision strikes, from the front line to operational depth. However, the Ukrainian experience does not prove that drones have replaced artillery, armored vehicles, aviation, or air defense. It proves that no technological advantage remains unanswered for long.

The war in Ukraine has compressed the cycle of military innovation from decades into months. A new system or tactic can offer an edge, but rarely for long. The adversary observes, adapts, and develops countermeasures until yesterday’s innovation becomes today’s vulnerability. Then the cycle begins anew — a relentless contest of invention, adaptation, and response.

For Ukraine, which, unlike Russia, cannot treat personnel losses as an acceptable cost, that means replacing people with unmanned systems wherever possible. But it does not mean replacing every other weapon. The question for Ukraine, the United States, and NATO is not which technology will win, but how to build forces........

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