Around 14 long months have passed since India and Pakistan fought a four-day war. The brief and dangerous conflict has left relations between the nuclear-armed rivals dangerously tense. Still, a survey of historical precedents, an evaluation of contemporary geo-economics, and a growing awareness of the grim dangers of renewed escalation suggest the relationship could gradually improve. At least, until the next crisis hits.

The conflict in May 2025 was arguably the most serious between India and Pakistan since the war of 1971. Their last major military confrontation was in 1999, when they fought for nearly three months in the mountains of Kargil in the disputed region of Kashmir. But that clash was localized.

The four-day war was brief but fierce, with hostilities waged across vast geographies. Drones and missiles were fired deep into each country’s territory, and both militaries deployed weaponry and defense technologies sourced from multiple countries. Pakistan drew on Chinese and Turkish equipment; India relied on French and Israeli weapons.

In the four years before the conflict, the relationship between India and Pakistan had been relatively stable—albeit practically nonexistent, as there was little contact between the two countries. But on Apr. 22, 2025 terrorists murdered 26 Indian tourists in a meadow in the Kashmiri town of Pahalgam. There was a furious campaign in India, led by the public, the media, and politicians, demanding revenge.

New Delhi blamed Pakistan, framing its actions as a counterterrorism imperative, and it launched air strikes inside Pakistan. Islamabad, which has a long history of sponsoring terrorism against India, denied any involvement. India compounded the damage by choosing several nonmilitary punitive actions: New Delhi closed the border with Pakistan, cut off trade, and—for the first time—suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a rare and durable bilateral achievement that ensured cooperation over shared transboundary rivers for decades.

Since the 2025 war, broader regional developments have deepened the........

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