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Why Tamil Nadu 2026 election is going to produce a hung Assembly

Almost every party in Tamil Nadu is facing internal conflicts. The results on 4 May could throw up a new political surprise and an unexpected twist.

The Tamil Nadu poll campaign has picked up momentum. April 23 is polling day, and the results of the 234-member Assembly will be declared on 4 May. The 2026 results could throw up a new political surprise and an unexpected twist. Around 6 crore voters will elect a new set of representatives. Twenty-one political parties have fielded around 2,200 candidates. Best permutations and combinations, fresh mandate and new faces will become MLAs from May 5 onwards for five years.

For the past 70 years, either DMK or AIADMK has ruled the state alternately. In the 2026 polls, for the first time, DMK is contesting 164 out of 234 seats, while AIADMK has fielded 167 candidates. Does this indicate largesse toward allies, or does it expose weak spots in their dominance?

Both Dravidian parties have one national party in their alliances. Both have given away what they consider ‘weak’ constituencies to allies—while the DMK has given 28 seats to the Congress, the AIADMK has allotted 27 seats to the BJP. This itself is indicative of a possible hung Assembly.

Rahul Gandhi appears detached in the DMK-Congress alliance. At heart, he was keen on a tie-up with Vijay’s TVK, but Vijay is going solo. His support base includes many women and a large male following. He attracts uncontrollable huge crowds. However, he is constantly reminded of the Karur tragedy, where 41 people lost their lives in a stampede.

Almost every party in Tamil Nadu is facing internal conflicts and contradictions over seat-sharing. Cadre protests on the streets have been widely reported on TV channels.

VCK founder-president Thol Thirumavalavan, in an interview to The Hindu, said the BJP may try to split the DMK even if it wins a majority. This statement has rattled alliance partners.

DMK is facing anti-incumbency. MK Stalin is heading a six-party Secular Progressive........

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