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The 2026 midterms will test the political foundations of American power abroad

The 2026 midterms will deliver no final answer. But they will provide an important verdict on the political foundations of American leadership.

The 2026 US midterm elections, slated for early November, will inevitably be fought over domestic concerns—cost of living, immigration, taxation, employment, healthcare and the performance of President Donald Trump’s second administration. Their consequences will extend well beyond America’s borders. The outcome will test the political and institutional foundations of Trump’s “America First” approach as his presidency enters its latter half, while reflecting the deeper polarisation and contestation surrounding America’s global role.

Held midway through a president’s four-year term, the midterms are nationwide elections in which all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and roughly one-third of the 100 seats in the Senate are contested, alongside numerous state and local offices. Although the presidency itself is not on the ballot, the elections determine which party controls the US Congress and are often viewed as a political verdict on the incumbent president. As such, a change of control in either chamber can significantly alter the administration’s ability to advance its agenda during the remaining two years of the presidential term.

Foreign policy rarely determines American elections, but polls can significantly shape foreign policy. The president enjoys considerable authority over diplomacy and military deployments, but Congress controls appropriations, sanctions, trade legislation, arms transfers and oversight—the instruments required to sustain international commitments.

This distinction is significant in 2026. With Republicans holding narrow majorities in both chambers, even a modest electoral shift could alter the balance of power in Washington. Democratic control of either chamber is unlikely to reverse Trump’s foreign policy, but could constrain its implementation and intensify congressional scrutiny. Continued Republican control, by contrast, would give the administration greater political and institutional........

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