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This year’s Economic Survey opens on a measuredly confident note, presenting the state of the economy as one that is pushing the growth frontier. The confidence is not without basis: despite pronounced global headwinds, heightened volatility and uncertainty, India has recorded moderate growth. However, this does not yet amount to a decisive push to the growth frontier.

By the Survey’s own projections, growth in FY26 is placed at around 7.4%, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in FY27 expected to ease to 6.8-7.2%. More fundamentally, an examination of growth outcomes since 2014-15 shows that the economy has expanded above 7% in barely half the years, indicating that India has yet to achieve a decisive upward shift in its growth trajectory.

Sustaining economic growth of at least 8% – and preferably higher – remains essential if India is to break free of the middle-income trap. Last year’s Economic Survey recognised this constraint, arguing that the aspiration of Viksit Bharat by the centenary of Independence would require an average growth rate of around 8% over the next two decades. In concrete terms, this would mean growth closer to 9% in the coming decade, easing to around 8% thereafter, with periodic dips to about 7% during episodes of global turbulence, together delivering the required long-term average.

There is also a long-standing concern about the measurement of growth. Last year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assigned India’s national accounts a ‘C’ grade, citing limitations in methodology and coverage. The issue cannot be set aside and warrants careful recalibration. A key weakness lies in extrapolating organised-sector performance to an economy that remains overwhelmingly informal. As the current Economic Survey itself shows, the productivity gap between organised and unorganised sectors is substantial, raising the risk of overstating aggregate growth. If this is accounted for, the growth rate required to truly push the frontier is closer to 9-10%. By that benchmark, recent outcomes fall below India’s potential, suggesting considerable........

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