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The benchmarks in the estrangement of the two countries are well known – it began with Operation Sindoor, intensified when punitive tariffs were imposed on India’s import of Russian oil and was marked by India’s participation in the Tianjin Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, the prolonged trade deal negotiations, aggressive US deportation of Indian immigrants and the increase of H-1B visa fees, weakened cooperation in the Quad and the softer US approach to Pakistan and China.

In the interim, India had fast-tracked free trade agreements with other partners, including, importantly, the European Union. But there are some who believe that the interim trade deal reducing tariffs to 18% following Indian commitments to stop Russian oil imports will lead to the normalisation of a situation that had profoundly weakened Indian trust in the US as a reliable partner.

But this may well be a false dawn. The texture of the India-US conversation on what is still merely “a framework for an Interim Agreement” for reciprocal trade, is not heartening. The hiccups that were heard – the controversy over the revealing White House fact sheet on the trade deal – are an example. More than anything, what it has done is to reveal the lines along which the US will push in the coming period when the actual agreement is negotiated.

It will definitely press for the inclusion of “certain pulses” to the list of agricultural products it wants to export to India. It will demand that India remove the digital services tax that affects its major companies. And its lever will be the Indian “commitment” or perhaps “intention” to raise the purchase of American products by $500 billion in five years.

All this will be done with the Russian oil gun to India’s head. The US has not hesitated to spell out bluntly that should India not stop purchasing oil from Russia, New Delhi could once again be hit by punitive tariffs.

An example of the tough US approach is evident from the recent US-Bangladesh arrangement wherein the US reduced the latter’s reciprocal tariffs to 19% but has said it would accept their textile products at zero tariffs if Bangladesh purchases US cotton and yarn. Bangladesh has been one of the largest importers of Indian cotton, but now it is likely to buy American. In 2024, India had exported cotton yarn worth $1.6 billion to the country. Piyush Goyal says that India can avail the same facility, but then who will buy........

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