Listen to this article:

As the Israeli-American war on Iran grinds on, we are coming to what could be an inflexion point. The first, highly scripted phase of the US-Israeli campaign is coming to a close. Iran has suffered staggering losses, but it is still standing. By its attack, although unsuccessful, on Diego Garcia, Tehran has shown that it still has considerable fight left in it.

Now we come to the messier second phase where the US is trying to work its way out. So we have Trump sometimes saying he will walk away and at other times that he’ll double down. On Saturday (March 21), he gave Iran an ultimatum that if the Strait of Hormuz was not opened in 48 hours, the US would begin bombing power plants in Iran. In turn, Iran said it would respond by attacks on energy, data centres and desalination plants in the region. Things appeared to have taken a catastrophic turn.

But this Monday (March 23) morning, several hours before the ultimatum expired, Trump walked back on it, saying that he had suspended action for five days claiming that the US had had “detailed and constructive conversation” with Iran. Mind you this only relates to the power plants, presumably the US and its Israeli ally will continue to bomb other targets. Incidentally, the Iranians have denied that they have had any talks with the Americans.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty.

Recall that last Friday (March 20), Trump said the US was considering “winding down” the war without resolving the Hormuz issue. “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it – The United States does not”, he wrote on Truth Social. But, typical of him, he then gave Iran the ultimatum he has now suspended.

Meanwhile, we can see other pieces being moved on the chessboard. In the past weeks, the unprepared Americans had to pull out a marine expeditionary unit (MEU) from Okinawa to the region and shift a THAAD unit from Korea and virtually beg navies from various countries to help open the Hormuz Straits. As for Iran, unable to defend itself, it has, by attacking its Gulf neighbours’ energy infrastructure, imposed high costs all around.

As of now, Iran........

© The Wire