A recap of the failures

Pahalgam was Pakistan’s answer for the Jaffar Express terror attack. The link is clear from the fulminations of then General, now Field Marshal Asim Munir, chafing under that attack. As a former intelligence chief, he knew which levers to pull.

For its part, India gave him a wide-open goal in its having earlier withdrawn the security forces’ picquet at Baisaran meadow. This unexplained vacating of a tourist-frequented site quite naturally fed speculation in the usual quarters. That there has been no accountability for this operational level failure only strengthens conspiracy theories.

Pakistan’s conspiracy narrative is understandably more vehement and holds that the Baisaran terror attack was a black-operation to provide the – albeit tenuous – legal cover for an Indian armed attack that would sans such cover amount to aggression in international law.

The higher-level failure is in the potential of the regional security environment for periodically generating such crises. The post-August 2019 situation in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is only superficially stable. Within J&K, the Pirpanjal – where alienation lingers – had long been activated by the Pakistanis, using the vacation of that space by the Indian redeployment to Ladakh. Thus, Baisaran, followed soon by the tango Op Sindoor-Op Banyan al-Marsoos, was only to be expected. Apparently, the return of the Uniform Force to its original areas of jungle bashing was not timely enough.

The third failure is in the security strategy adopted since the Uri episode – of reprisal from a cold start – falling short. Neither did Uri deter a Pulwama, nor did a Pulwama deter a Baisaran. That Op Sindoor continues is Indian acceptance that even Op Sindoor does not deter. No one’s been sacked for adoption of a strategy lacking imagination.

The fourth failure is to chase the mirage of dominance. India could pay heed to a lesson from the ongoing Iran War II: mere lobbing of ordnance, missile and drone strikes do not beget higher-order strategic outcomes. At best, lower-order strategic objectives as pressure points, serve for messaging and to get even can be met thereby.

Not only did Israel, later joined by the United States (US), pound Iran in Iran War I (the 12-Day War), but both have had to repeat the volleys multifold in the ongoing Iran War II (the Ramadan War). Though both arsenals have run-down, Iran........

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