The future of the war in Iran is increasingly focused on less than 9 square miles of coral outcrop in the Persian Gulf.

Kharg Island, which lies about 30 kilometers (19 miles) off the Iranian mainland and 500 kilometers (300 miles) northwest of the Strait of Hormuz, is the export terminal for 90 percent of Iran’s oil shipments.

The island could also be the path US President Donald Trump sees to reopening the strait.

Four weeks into the US-Israeli campaign against the Islamic Republic, the flow of energy through Hormuz has become a major issue. By striking and threatening shipping, Iran is trying to drive up costs for countries across the globe and for US voters to raise pressure on Trump to end the war.

It might be working. On Monday, Trump dropped a bombshell announcement that his administration was engaged in “very good” talks with Iran regarding a “complete and total resolution” of the war.

Since then, he and his administration have given conflicting accounts on how likely a deal is. US special envoy Steve Witkoff said on Thursday there are “strong signs” the US will be able to convince Iran that it has no better option than to accept Washington’s 15-point plan for ending the war.

Trump is expressing more skepticism about those chances three days after he indicated a deal was close. “I don’t know if we’ll be able to do that,” he said in opening remarks at a cabinet meeting.

“I’m the opposite of desperate to make a deal. I don’t care!” he insisted. “We have other targets we want to hit before we leave.”

One of those targets could be Kharg Island.

“On the strategic chessboard of this war, Kharg Island is the next piece,” former defense minister Yoav Gallant wrote in The Free Press. “It may be the move that decides the conflict. If it is going to be made, it must be made now.”

The US enjoys overwhelming military advantages, but there are significant risks to taking the strategic site. American forces would be an enticing target, and there are other ways to pressure the regime by cutting off its oil sales.

Still, if talks don’t pan out, that is where the war could be heading.

“What I expect to see is further escalation, which would probably involve some kind of military operations carried out by the United States, this time using boots on the ground,” said Raz Zimmt, Iran scholar at the Institute for National Security Studies.

Trump has not publicly ruled out the option of taking Kharg, a move he advocated during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.

He told The Guardian in a 1988 interview that should he ever become US president, “I’d be harsh on Iran. They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look........

© The Times of Israel